Demographic Trends for the Lower Arkansas Valley

At the Lower Ark District’s January 2026 board meeting, Nancy Gedeon with the Colorado State Demography Office presented on population trends and projections for Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and Prowers counties, along with insights into El Paso County. Nancy reported that Colorado’s overall rate of growth is slowing and that, by 2047, net migration will be the sole driver of population growth as deaths begin to outpace births. Not surprisingly, nearly 90% of projected population growth is expected to occur along the Front Range.

The population projection models used by the State Demography Office understandably rely heavily on past economic activity, employment trends, and migration patterns to project future growth. While these indicators are useful, they do not fully capture what is valuable and worthy of protection in Colorado. The models do not account for the long-term importance and value of keeping Colorado agriculture viable, sustaining rural communities, or preserving working lands that support the state’s food system, open spaces, economy, and cultural heritage. 

When decision makers treat growth projections as destiny rather than one input among many, they risk shaping policies that unintentionally accelerate the transfer of water and resources away from rural agricultural communities.

Colorado faces important choices not about whether we grow, but how we grow.